NBA • against the spread

NBA ATS Mean Reversion

Bet against recent ATS overperformers and with underperformers, using each team’s average margin vs the spread over the past 7 days. Every game on the slate is listed below, largest absolute gap first. The top 3 are the published bets.

Updated

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Today’s slate

Games sorted by absolute 7-day ATS gap
|Δ| Game Bet Away 7d Home 7d
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How it works

Same public-overreaction idea as the NFL ATS model, adapted for a multi-game week:

  1. After each game, measure how far each team finished relative to the closing spread.
  2. A team’s score is its average ATS margin over the trailing 7 days.
  3. For today’s slate, rank matchups by the absolute gap between the two teams’ 7-day scores.
  4. Bet the underperformer (lower / more negative average). The table shows every game that day; the top 3 gaps are the published bets.

Research tool only—not betting advice.

Pick history

Past NBA ATS model picks
Date Bet Δ Result
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Accuracy by |Δ| percentile

Win rate by where a game’s |Δ| ranks
Percentile |Δ| cutoff Record Accuracy
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